The cost of international train travel across the Channel Tunnel may soon decrease by as much as 30%, thanks to rising passenger demand and a wave of new operators preparing to challenge Eurostar’s long-standing monopoly.
While individual train companies still set their prices—and Eurostar has yet to confirm any fare adjustments—industry experts say travellers could soon benefit from significantly cheaper tickets.
Eurostar one-way tickets from London to Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels, Lille, or Rotterdam start from £39. A 30% drop would reduce that to approximately £27.
Premium ticket holders may also benefit. Eurostar Plus fares starting at £70 could fall to £49. Even higher-priced journeys could become more affordable; for instance, a £235 fare for April 11 could drop to around £165 under the projected reductions.
The forecast comes from a report by infrastructure consultancy Steer, commissioned by London St Pancras High Speed, which owns the station and the high-speed rail line to the Channel Tunnel.
The study predicts that annual passenger numbers on the route could triple—from 11 million to 35 million—by 2040.
To meet the projected demand, up to 18 new daily services may be introduced on current routes, alongside the launch of trains to as many as five new destinations across Western Europe. There are also plans to double international capacity at St Pancras, enabling nearly 5,000 passengers per hour to travel during peak times.
Robert Sinclair, CEO of London St Pancras High Speed, described the development as a generational shift in European rail:
“Passengers are increasingly choosing rail over air for climate reasons and because they like the convenience and comfort of direct city-centre to city-centre travel.”
Eurostar has operated exclusive passenger services through the Channel Tunnel since its inception in 1994, but that dominance is being seriously challenged. Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Group has announced that “no more major hurdles” prevent it from entering the market.
The UK’s Office of Rail and Road (ORR) supports this competition. It confirmed that Eurostar’s Temple Mills maintenance depot could soon be shared with other operators—an essential step towards enabling new entrants to use the infrastructure.
Italy’s state-owned Ferrovie dello Stato Italiane (FS Group) has also revealed plans to launch a high-speed rail link between London and Paris by 2029.
The company, which co-owns Avanti West Coast, may eventually extend services to Marseille, Lyon and Milan, and possibly reopen Ashford International in Kent.
To help boost capacity and attract more operators, London St Pancras High Speed has announced plans to offer financial incentives to both existing and incoming train companies. Currently, the high-speed route operates at only 50% of its total capacity.
With growing momentum toward sustainable travel and new competition on the horizon, rail passengers could soon enjoy more choices—and lower fares—than ever before.
